Hivemind AGORA: Collective Intelligence

AGORA is a software platform that allows you to elicit and aggregate the judgments of many individuals into consensus forecasts that are actionable and accountable and which can evolve as new information becomes available.

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Agora in action

Predicting hurricane activity

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June to November. On average, 6 hurricanes form each season but the actual number is variable with 2005 seeing a record 15 hurricanes...

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Forecasting crop yields

How much of a given crop is likely to be produced by a country is of interest to industries that use the crop as an input as well as commodity brokers and traders....

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Predicting cases of COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic began early in 2020 as the SARS-Cov-2 virus, that causes the disease, spread around the world. The United States was particularly hard hit...

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Use cases

Sales forecasting

Ford, Nokia and Hewlett Packard are among the many companies who have used internal prediction markets to forecast sales. Prediction markets can uncover information that might not otherwise be available to the sales forecasting team because it is distributed widely throughout the organisation. AGORA allows any business to take advantage of this approach.

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Project milestones and deadlines

Google, Siemens and Microsoft have used internal prediction markets to forecast whether projects will meet their milestones and deadlines. AGORA allows businesses to anonymously capture knowledge about a project’s true progress.

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Research and development outcomes

Global pharmaceutical giant Eli Lilly, has used prediction markets to help predict which drugs under development might have the best chance of advancing through clinical trials. Prediction markets have also proved effective in forecasting whether experiments in social psychology were likely to replicate successfully. AGORA can help organisations make their R&D pipelines more efficient.

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Economic forecasting

Prediction markets have been used to predict nominal gross domestic product (NGDP) and other macroeconomic variables. AGORA can allow market-driven information discovery where traditional markets don’t exist.

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Physical and natural systems

Prediction markets involving climate and weather experts have been used to forecast weather and climate variables on weekly and monthly timescales. If your organisation has access to relevant experts, AGORA can consolidate their insight into a consensus forecast.

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DISCOVER MORE...

ABOUT PREDICTION MARKETS

A prediction market is an online space where a group of people can speculate on the future outcome of an event.

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DESIGNING AN AGORA MARKET

The design of your market will depend on the information you want it to generate, and the participants you invite.

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A TOOL FOR DECISION MAKING

Imagine the value of the dispersed human knowledge in your organisation, if it were aggregated into a structured forecast.

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INTERESTED IN AGORA?

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