The market will be hosted on Hivemind's AGORA platform on which participants will receive virtual credits with which to "bet" on the yield. The winner will be the participant who has accumulated the most credits after the actual yield value is published and the market is settled.
This is an experiment to demonstrate how a prediction market can be used to combine the expertise of many individuals to produce a consensus yield forecast that updates as new information becomes available.
We are first gathering expressions of interest from potential participants. We will then select around 20 participants from the entrants for this first competition. We aim to formally launch the competition around the end of January 2021.
Please email firstname.lastname@example.org with your name and background and a brief description of how you would approach the problem of predicting UK winter wheat yields. You do not have to publish your method but we are looking to recruit participants with diverse and complementary approaches to the problem.