AGORA use case: Crop yield forecasting

Mark Roulston, Senior Data Scientist •

IMG Combine


How much of a given crop is likely to be produced by a country is of interest to industries that use the crop as an input as well as commodity brokers and traders. The yield per hectare is a key variable that determines the production of a given crop. How much wheat per hectare the UK will produce in a growing season will have a major impact on wheat prices. Agrimetrics, a UK-based Marketplace for agricultural food, farming and environmental data, are interested in improving predictions of crop yields by combining sources of information and different approaches to forecasting.


Hivemind created the Yield21 prediction market for Agrimetrics to forecast the UK average wheat yield for 2021. Experts were invited to join the market. Using on-platform credits they were able to buy and sell contracts corresponding to different yield levels for UK wheat.


Twenty five experts are taking part in the Yield21 prediction market, they include agronomists, statisticians and farmers. From their trading activity, AGORA generates an implied probability for the UK wheat yield which evolves as participants get new information about factors that may affect the yield, such as weather events.