Prediction market platform launched by Hivemind

Blog 6

Hivemind launches its AGORA platform for running prediction markets. Its first application will be forecasting UK wheat yields in a prediction market run by Agrimetrics.

Oxford, United Kingdom

Hivemind, the company that produces software for managing data generation using human processes, launched its newest product, AGORA on 1st February 2021. AGORA is a platform for running prediction markets that elicit and aggregate the judgments of multiple participants into actionable consensus forecasts.

The latest user of AGORA is Agrimetrics, a UK-based Marketplace for agricultural food, farming and environmental data. Agrimetrics’s Yield21 prediction market will see two dozen participants – including agronomists, climatologists and farmers – “betting” virtual credits on the 2021 average UK wheat yield. AGORA will use this betting activity to generate a consensus prediction of the wheat yield that will evolve as new information becomes available. This real-time probabilistic prediction will be of interest within the agrifood and related sectors, such as soft commodity traders. To assist Yield21 participants, Agrimetrics will provide free access to their Data Marketplace; their partner, Weather Logistics, will also provide seasonal weather predictions.

Agrimetrics’s Chief Product Officer, Matthew Smith, explained, "Operating a Data Marketplace, we're aware of the growing variety of data and techniques that could be used to predict agri-environmental outcomes. Prediction markets seem a great way to reveal how that translates into prediction accuracy and so we're running this competition as an experiment to learn more about that promise for the agri-food sector more widely."

AGORA solves the problem of combining different types of information from different sources and synthesizing them into a single prediction. While in beta it was used to run prediction markets forecasting Atlantic hurricane activity, El Niño events and the prevalence of COVID-19 in the United States.

Although prediction markets use the mechanics of gambling to elicit information from participants their aim is fundamentally different to traditional gaming. “Participants in AGORA markets are not a source of revenue,” said Dan Mitchell, CEO of Hivemind, “they are a source of information.”

Notes to editors

Hivemind is a technology company that helps clients produce exceptional data. Its software allows clients to embed human decision-making in their data infrastructure so they can rely on data that is accurate, bespoke and efficiently delivered.

AGORA is Hivemind’s newest product. It is a SaaS platform that enables clients to run private prediction markets that elicit and aggregate the views of many experts. Clients can use their own internal or external experts, or they can take advantage of Hivemind’s network of prediction market participants with expertise in an array of disciplines.

Agrimetrics is the food and farming sector’s Data Marketplace. They enable organisations to safely share and monetise their data, whilst making it easier for data-consumers to access the information they need. Their goal is to help create a more productive and sustainable food system by enabling next-generation solutions as quickly and affordably as possible.

They are one of four centres for agricultural innovation founded with an initial investment from Innovate UK. Their founding partners are NIAB, SRUC, Rothamsted Research and the University of Reading. They have strategic partnerships with Airbus and Microsoft and are participant in Microsoft’s prestigious AI for Earth programme.


Jon Bratton, Chief Commercial Officer, Hivemind